Marae Digipoll have done a poll of 1,000 Maori votes. 655 were from the Maori roll and 345 from the general roll.
The margin of errors are 3.2%, 3.9% and 5.4% respectively. The average no of respondents per Maori electorate is 94 which has a margin of error of 10.4%.
Party Vote – All Maori voters
- Labour 38.4%
- Maori 22.2%
- National 16.4%
- Mana 8.5%
- Green 6.5%
- NZ First 5.1%
- ACT 1.0%
Party Vote – General roll Maori voters
- Labour 43.5%
- Maori 11.7%
- National 22.4%
- Mana 1.6%
- Green 8.1%
- NZ First 7.1%
- ACT 2.9%
Party Vote – Maori roll Maori voters (2008 result in brackets)
- Labour 35.7% (50.1%)
- Maori 27.7% (28.9%)
- National 13.2% (7.4%)
- Mana 12.0%
- Green 5.6% (3.9%)
- NZ First 4.1% (6.1%)
- ACT 0.0% (0.5%)
Electorate Vote (all 7 electorates)
- Maori 37.5%
- Labour 35.1%
- Mana 13.8%
- National 5.6%
- Green 2.5%
- NZ First 2.5%
Te Tai Tokerau
- Labour 30.2%
- Mana 28.6%
- Maori 22.2%
Tamaki Makaurau
- Maori 46.1%
- Labour 30.4%
- Mana 15.7%
Waiariki
- Maori 59.3%
- Mana 18.7%
- Labour 8.8%
Te Tai Tonga
- Labour 41.4%%
- Maori 34.5%
- Mana 3.4%
Tainui
- Labour 58.8%%
- Maori 12.9%
- Mana 17.6%
Te Tai Hauauru
- Labour 40.3%%
- Maori 48.6%%
- Mana 1.4%
Ikaroa Rawhiti
- Labour 40.5%%
- Maori 31.6%
- NZ First 10.1%
- Mana 8.9%
With the high margin of error, one can work out the probability that a candidate in the seat is actually in the lead. They are:
- Te Tai Tokerau – Labour ahead with 58% probability
- Tamaki Makaurau – Maori Party ahead with 96% probability
- Waiariki – Maori Party ahead with 100% probability
- Te Tai Tonga – Labour ahead with 78% probability
- Tainui – Labour ahead with 1005 probability
- Te Tai Hauauru – Maori Party ahead with 80% probability
- Ikaroa Rawhiti – Labour ahead with 85% probability
Has Maori Party represented Maori well?
- Yes 56%
- No 34%
Support Maori Party decision to vote for Marine and Coastal Area Bill?
- Yes 54%
- No 28%
Accept Maori Party position that compromise worthwhile to ensure seat at Cabinet table?
- Yes 69%
- No 21%
Agree with Harawira that Maori Party lacks energy and candidates too old?
- Yes 35%
- No 54%
Should Shane Jones take over from Phil Goff as Labour Leader?
- Yes 47%
- No 31%
Has traditional voter support for Labour dropped?
- Yes 77%
- No 9%
Can Hone Harawira effectively lead Mana Party?
- Yes 55%
- No 35%
Which Maori MP best represents views of Maori?
- Pita Sharples 22%
- Tariana Turia 20%
- Hone Harawira 11%
- Winston Peters 3.8%
- Shane Jones 3.6%
Preferred PM
- John Key 33%
- Pita Sharples 7%
- Tariana Turia 4.8%
- Phil Goff 4.4%
- Hone Harawira 3.9%
- Winston Peters 3.7%
- Shane Jones 2.8%
